For over a decade, Bangladesh’s political landscape has been largely shaped by the rule of the Awami League, led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Over the past 14 years, the party has strengthened its grip on power, but the role of external forces, particularly India and its intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), in influencing Bangladeshi politics has been a subject of considerable debate. As a key regional power, India's geopolitical interests in Bangladesh are significant, and there is substantial evidence to suggest that RAW has played a role in shaping the political landscape to favor Indian interests, especially during the Awami League's tenure.
Historical Context of India-Bangladesh Relations
India’s relationship with Bangladesh has been deeply intertwined since Bangladesh’s independence in 1971, when India, under Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, provided crucial military and diplomatic support to the country’s liberation movement. This foundation set the tone for India’s involvement in Bangladesh’s domestic politics in the decades to follow. Traditionally, the Awami League, founded by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, has been seen as a pro-India party due to its historical ties with Indian leadership during the Liberation War.
In contrast, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has generally taken a more nationalist stance, often critiquing the Awami League’s closeness to India and advocating for policies that emphasize Bangladeshi sovereignty. This political dynamic has, at times, strained relations between Bangladesh and India during BNP rule, while the Awami League’s ascendancy to power in 2009 marked a period of closer ties between Dhaka and New Delhi.
RAW’s Role in Bangladeshi Politics
1. Alleged Role in the 2008 Election
The 2008 general election that brought the Awami League to power is seen by many as a turning point in Bangladesh-India relations. There have been allegations that RAW played a crucial role in ensuring Sheikh Hasina's victory, fostering a political environment favorable to India’s strategic interests.
In the lead-up to the election, Bangladesh was governed by a military-backed caretaker government, which was tasked with stabilizing the country after widespread political turmoil. During this period, various reports suggested that RAW maintained close contacts with the caretaker government and influential figures within Bangladesh's political landscape, aiming to create conditions conducive to an Awami League victory. Indian support for the Awami League was seen as a strategy to secure a friendly government that would prioritize cooperation with India on key issues, such as border security, trade, and regional stability.
2. Security and Counterterrorism Cooperation
One of India’s primary concerns in its relationship with Bangladesh is security, particularly in the context of Islamic militancy and insurgency in the northeastern states of India. The Awami League government has been instrumental in addressing these concerns by cracking down on anti-India insurgent groups, such as the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), which had previously used Bangladesh as a safe haven.
There have been claims that RAW, through its intelligence network, has collaborated closely with Bangladesh’s security apparatus to track and dismantle insurgent groups operating in Bangladesh. This cooperation has strengthened India’s security in its northeastern region but has also raised concerns in Bangladesh about the extent of India’s influence over its internal security affairs.
3. Economic and Trade Influence
India’s influence in Bangladesh has expanded beyond politics into economics and trade. Over the past 14 years, under the Awami League’s rule, India has secured significant trade deals and investments in Bangladesh’s infrastructure, energy, and transport sectors. India is now one of Bangladesh’s largest trading partners, but there has been criticism that the trade relationship heavily favors India, with Bangladesh running a large trade deficit.
Critics argue that RAW has facilitated Indian business interests in Bangladesh, using diplomatic and covert means to secure contracts and investment opportunities for Indian companies. This economic influence is viewed by some as part of a broader strategy to keep Bangladesh economically dependent on India, thereby ensuring the Awami League remains favorable to Indian interests.
4. Political Influence and Internal Stability
One of RAW’s key roles has been to help ensure the political stability of the Awami League government. Over the years, there have been allegations of RAW's involvement in suppressing political opposition, particularly the BNP and its ally, Jamaat-e-Islami. Opposition leaders have accused RAW of influencing Bangladesh’s intelligence services, including the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), to target opposition politicians through arrests, legal challenges, and media campaigns.
There have been several high-profile cases of opposition leaders being jailed or politically sidelined during the Awami League's tenure. For example, the imprisonment of BNP leader Khaleda Zia on corruption charges and the legal cases against Tarique Rahman, who remains in exile, have significantly weakened the BNP's ability to challenge the Awami League in elections. Some analysts suggest that RAW’s influence over Bangladesh’s political apparatus has played a role in ensuring that the Awami League faces minimal political resistance.
5. Border and Water Disputes
India and Bangladesh have a long history of disputes over their shared border and water resources, particularly the sharing of water from the Teesta River. Under the Awami League government, several longstanding border disputes were resolved, most notably through the 2015 Land Boundary Agreement, which was seen as a major diplomatic victory for both countries.
However, despite these successes, the unresolved Teesta water-sharing issue remains a contentious point in Bangladesh’s domestic politics. Critics of the Awami League argue that the government has not done enough to secure Bangladesh’s water rights, partly due to pressure from India. Some opposition voices claim that RAW has influenced the Awami League’s stance on water-sharing negotiations, prioritizing Indian interests over Bangladesh’s needs.
6. Media and Information Control
RAW’s influence in Bangladesh is also thought to extend to the media and information space. There have been allegations that Indian intelligence services have worked to shape public opinion in Bangladesh by promoting narratives that favor the Awami League and marginalize the opposition. Indian media outlets and journalists with close ties to RAW are suspected of playing a role in this strategy by disseminating stories that frame India-Bangladesh relations in a positive light while downplaying areas of friction.
Additionally, RAW is believed to have been involved in countering disinformation campaigns that threaten Indian interests or those of the Awami League government. This has included efforts to monitor and suppress Islamist extremism and anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh, particularly on social media platforms.
7. The Rohingya Crisis and Regional Stability
The Rohingya refugee crisis, which began in 2017 when hundreds of thousands of Rohingya Muslims fled Myanmar and sought refuge in Bangladesh, presented a significant challenge for Bangladesh’s domestic stability and its relations with neighboring countries. India’s approach to the crisis has been cautious, balancing its strategic interests in Myanmar with its relationship with Bangladesh.
While India has provided some humanitarian assistance to Bangladesh, its reluctance to take a strong stance against Myanmar’s military has led to criticism within Bangladesh. Some analysts believe that RAW has worked behind the scenes to ensure that the Awami League government manages the refugee crisis in a way that does not harm India’s broader regional interests, particularly its relationship with Myanmar.
Over the past 14 years, India’s influence in Bangladesh, particularly through its intelligence agency RAW, has been substantial. The Awami League’s close ties with India have facilitated deeper cooperation on security, economic, and political fronts, but this relationship has also raised concerns about Bangladesh’s sovereignty and the extent of foreign interference in its domestic affairs.
While the Awami League has benefited from India’s support, particularly in terms of political stability and economic growth, critics argue that this has come at the cost of Bangladesh’s independence in decision-making, especially on sensitive issues like border disputes, water-sharing, and internal politics. As Bangladesh approaches another critical election, the question of India’s influence, and RAW’s role in shaping the country’s political future, is likely to remain a contentious issue.