India’s strategic alignment with Bangladesh’s Awami League, particularly during Sheikh Hasina's tenure, has been a cornerstone of New Delhi's South Asia policy. However, the recent student protests in Bangladesh, culminating in the ousting of the Awami League government, have exposed the vulnerabilities of India’s foreign policy in the region. What seemed like a stable and advantageous alliance for India has now become a political liability, leading some to argue that India's unconditional support for the Awami League was, in hindsight, a strategic blunder. This article explores the reasons behind this assertion and the implications for India’s regional influence.
The Historical Context: India and the Awami League
India’s support for the Awami League is rooted in historical ties dating back to the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, during which India played a crucial role in aiding East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) to achieve independence from Pakistan. The Awami League, under Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, became the founding party of the newly independent nation, and India’s relationship with it has been deeply intertwined with its geopolitical and security interests in the region.
Under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, the Awami League has maintained a close relationship with India, fostering cooperation in areas such as trade, security, and counter-terrorism. For India, supporting Hasina’s government was seen as a way to ensure a friendly government in Dhaka, keep Islamist extremism in check, and counterbalance Chinese influence in the region. However, this close alignment has come at a cost, especially in the wake of the recent political upheaval in Bangladesh.
The Unraveling of the Awami League and India’s Strategic Miscalculation
The downfall of the Awami League government following widespread student protests has revealed the extent to which India may have overplayed its hand. The protests, driven by grievances against corruption, authoritarianism, and lack of opportunities, were also fueled by a broader discontent with Hasina’s close ties to India, which many Bangladeshis perceived as compromising their nation’s sovereignty.
India’s unqualified support for the Awami League, particularly in the face of growing domestic discontent within Bangladesh, alienated large segments of the Bangladeshi population. Critics argue that India’s failure to hedge its bets and engage with a broader spectrum of Bangladeshi political forces has now left it in a precarious position, with its influence in Dhaka significantly diminished.
Perceived Interference and Loss of Popular Support: India’s strong backing of the Awami League was increasingly viewed by many in Bangladesh as undue interference in the country’s internal affairs. The perception that India was propping up an authoritarian regime at the expense of democratic norms further eroded its image among the Bangladeshi populace, particularly the youth, who played a pivotal role in the protests.
Lack of Engagement with Other Political Entities: India’s singular focus on the Awami League meant that it neglected to build relationships with other political parties, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and emerging grassroots movements. With the fall of the Awami League, India now faces the challenge of re-establishing ties with a new political order that may not be as favorable towards New Delhi’s interests.
Regional Ramifications and the China Factor: India’s unwavering support for the Awami League also created an opening for China, which has been steadily increasing its influence in Bangladesh through infrastructure investments and economic partnerships. With the Awami League’s departure, there is a risk that the new government may pivot towards Beijing, further complicating India’s strategic calculus in South Asia.
The Consequences of India’s Strategic Bet
The political fallout from the collapse of the Awami League government has significant implications for India:
Diminished Influence in Bangladesh: The immediate consequence of the Awami League’s ouster is the loss of India’s primary ally in Bangladesh. The new political leadership, which emerged from the protests, may take a more nationalist stance, potentially leading to a recalibration of Bangladesh’s foreign policy away from New Delhi.
Challenges in Border Security and Counterterrorism: The Awami League’s cooperation with India on border security and counterterrorism was a key element of their relationship. With a new government in place, these agreements could come under review, posing challenges for India in managing cross-border security issues, particularly concerning insurgent groups and illegal migration.
Economic and Trade Relations at Risk: India’s trade relations with Bangladesh, which flourished under the Awami League, may face new obstacles if the incoming government seeks to renegotiate or re-evaluate trade deals perceived as unfavorable to Bangladesh. This could disrupt the economic gains India has made in the region.
Perception of India in the Region: India’s approach to Bangladesh is being closely watched by other South Asian nations. The perception that India may have backed the wrong horse could undermine its standing as a regional leader and embolden other countries to seek alternative partnerships, particularly with China.
The Path Forward: Rebuilding Ties and Strategic Reassessment
In light of the recent developments, India must undertake a thorough reassessment of its foreign policy towards Bangladesh and the region as a whole. Key steps could include:
Engaging with the New Leadership: India needs to quickly establish channels of communication with the new government in Bangladesh, regardless of its political orientation. Building a working relationship based on mutual respect and non-interference will be crucial in re-establishing India’s influence.
Diversifying Political Engagement: To avoid a repeat of the current situation, India must diversify its political engagement in Bangladesh, reaching out to various political parties and civil society groups. This approach will help India maintain its influence regardless of which party is in power.
Reinforcing People-to-People Ties: India should focus on strengthening cultural and people-to-people connections with Bangladesh, which can help mitigate the negative perceptions caused by its previous support for the Awami League. Educational exchanges, cultural programs, and economic initiatives that benefit ordinary Bangladeshis could play a key role in this effort.
Balancing Geopolitical Interests: India must carefully balance its geopolitical interests in Bangladesh, particularly in light of China’s growing influence. A more nuanced approach, which takes into account the aspirations of the Bangladeshi people, will be essential for maintaining regional stability.
A Cautionary Tale for India's Regional Strategy
India’s unconditional support for the Awami League, while initially seen as a strategic alliance, has ultimately backfired in the current political context. The fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government serves as a reminder of the risks inherent in overly relying on a single political entity in volatile political landscapes. For India, the challenge now lies in recalibrating its approach to Bangladesh and ensuring that it remains a key player in the region despite the recent setbacks. The situation also offers broader lessons for India’s foreign policy, emphasizing the need for flexibility, adaptability, and a deeper understanding of the internal dynamics of its neighboring countries.